We recently released the Human Adaptability and Potential Index (HAPI) framework to measure adaptability and potential as key indicators for building a resilient workforce. As a fun exercise, I applied the HAPI framework to analyze the diplomatic engagement between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The outcome is a fascinating assessment of leadership adaptability in a high-stakes geopolitical context—please take a read. the diplomatic engagement between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Here is the outcome from the lens of the HAPI framework.**
Read about Human Adaptability and Potential Index (HAPI) at: https://noworkerleftbehind.org/hapi/
The recent Oval Office confrontation between President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may go down as a defining moment in international relations. Initially framed as a discussion on Ukraine’s mineral wealth and strategic positioning in negotiations with Russia, the meeting devolved into a heated exchange, culminating in the abrupt cancellation of the minerals deal and an open diplomatic rift. The fallout from this encounter signals the unraveling of the traditional transatlantic alliance and the fragmentation of what has long been known as the geopolitical West.
Through the lens of the Human Adaptability and Potential Index (HAPI), we can assess the adaptability of the key players—Trump, Zelensky, European leaders, and other global stakeholders—against the backdrop of this diplomatic rupture. By evaluating their cognitive, emotional, behavioral, social, and growth adaptability, we gain insights into how global leadership is evolving and what this means for future geopolitics.
Cognitive Adaptability: Shifting Strategic Thinking in a Rapidly Changing World
HAPI Scores:
- U.S.: Very Low – Prioritizing transactional short-term decisions over a coherent long-term strategy weakens global influence.
- Ukraine: Moderate – Displays strong diplomatic agility but remains overly reliant on traditional allies.
- EU: High – Rapidly adapting to new geopolitical realities by advancing independent defense strategies.
- China/Russia: Very High – Capitalizing on Western fragmentation and U.S. unpredictability to reshape global power structures.
Trump’s approach to diplomacy remains highly transactional, prioritizing immediate political gains over sustainable long-term alliances. The decision to publicly berate Zelensky and cancel the minerals deal demonstrates an inflexible, reactionary approach rather than a nuanced strategy.
Zelensky has exhibited strong cognitive adaptability throughout the war, leveraging diplomatic channels and international support. However, his expectation of unwavering U.S. support, despite Trump’s clear reluctance, reflects an overdependence on legacy partnerships. European leaders, led by figures like Kaja Kallas and Keir Starmer, have exhibited superior cognitive adaptability by acknowledging U.S. unpredictability and preparing for a more self-reliant future. Meanwhile, China and Russia are seizing the opportunity to expand their geopolitical influence by positioning themselves as stable alternatives to the fracturing Western alliance.
Emotional Adaptability: Managing Crisis and Uncertainty
HAPI Scores:
- U.S.: Low – Trump’s emotional volatility and confrontational diplomacy undermine strategic stability.
- Ukraine: Moderate – Resilient under pressure but visibly strained by diplomatic setbacks.
- EU: High – Maintaining composure while preparing for increased defense responsibilities.
- China/Russia: High – Leveraging global instability to assert greater influence.
Trump’s aggressive, performative style of diplomacy erodes trust and stability. His public outburst against Zelensky and subsequent social media attacks indicate an emotionally rigid leadership style that thrives on confrontation rather than resolution.
Zelensky remains resilient despite the diplomatic strain, though his inability to temper Trump’s hostility suggests signs of fatigue. European leaders, in contrast, are demonstrating high emotional adaptability, managing tensions while steadily advancing their strategic interests. China and Russia, meanwhile, are maintaining strategic composure, benefiting from the West’s internal conflicts.
Behavioral Adaptability: Adjusting Policies to New Realities
HAPI Scores:
- U.S.: Very Low – Erratic diplomatic shifts and withdrawal from key alliances create uncertainty.
- Ukraine: Moderate – Reactive rather than proactive in adjusting to shifting alliances.
- EU: Very High – Accelerating defense spending and diplomatic realignments.
- China/Russia: Very High – Seizing diplomatic and economic openings created by U.S. disengagement.
Trump’s “wrecking ball” diplomacy reflects an unwillingness to commit to stable geopolitical strategies. The abrupt cancellation of the minerals deal without a clear alternative underscores the administration’s reactive, rather than strategic, approach.
Zelensky’s diplomacy has been largely shaped by necessity, adapting to challenges as they arise. However, his failure to secure alternative agreements in anticipation of U.S. unpredictability signals a slower behavioral adaptation. European nations are displaying the highest level of behavioral adaptability by proactively forging new military and economic partnerships. Meanwhile, China and Russia are taking advantage of U.S. disengagement to strengthen their global positions.
Social Adaptability: Navigating Diplomatic Relations in a Polarized Environment
HAPI Scores:
- U.S.: Very Low – Alienating allies and undermining its own diplomatic credibility.
- Ukraine: High – Despite setbacks, continues to strengthen ties with European partners.
- EU: Very High – Reinforcing intra-European cooperation and diplomatic resilience.
- China/Russia: Very High – Utilizing U.S.-Europe divisions to build stronger international alliances.
Trump’s stance has significantly weakened U.S. diplomatic influence. His hostility toward Zelensky and lack of commitment to European security guarantees are further isolating Washington from its traditional allies. In contrast, Zelensky, while facing setbacks, continues to work with European partners to sustain Ukraine’s war effort. The EU is reinforcing internal cooperation, preparing for a future with reduced U.S. involvement. China and Russia are capitalizing on these fractures to expand their own spheres of influence.
Growth Potential: The Long-Term Strategic Outlook
HAPI Scores:
- U.S.: Very Low – Risking long-term geopolitical isolation through erratic foreign policy.
- Ukraine: Moderate – Needs to pivot towards self-sufficiency to secure lasting success.
- EU: Very High – Poised for long-term leadership through strategic independence.
- China/Russia: Very High – Positioned to dominate global affairs as Western alliances fragment.
The U.S. risks diminishing its role as a global leader due to its short-term disruptions and increasing diplomatic isolation. Zelensky’s long-term success hinges on his ability to diversify Ukraine’s alliances and reduce reliance on an unpredictable U.S. administration. European nations, recognizing the necessity of strategic independence, are investing in long-term resilience. Meanwhile, China and Russia are benefiting from Western instability, positioning themselves as dominant players in a multipolar world order.
Conclusion: The Geopolitical West in Flux
Overall HAPI Scores Before and After the Diplomatic Engagement:
- U.S.: Declined Significantly – Increasingly erratic diplomacy has further weakened its adaptability and global standing.
- Ukraine: Slight Decline – Diplomatic resilience remains strong, but reliance on the U.S. is proving to be a strategic liability.
- EU: Increased – The crisis has accelerated Europe’s strategic independence and adaptability, strengthening its long-term position.
- China/Russia: Increased – Benefiting from the breakdown of Western cohesion and filling the vacuum left by U.S. disengagement.
From a HAPI perspective, the geopolitical landscape is undergoing a dramatic shift. The U.S., once a stabilizing force, is rapidly losing adaptability due to short-sighted, transactional diplomacy. Ukraine remains resilient but must accelerate its transition towards diversified partnerships. The EU has displayed the highest adaptability, preparing for a leadership role in global security. Meanwhile, China and Russia are capitalizing on Western fractures, solidifying their influence in the emerging multipolar order.
The unraveling of traditional alliances signals not the end of Western dominance, but its transformation. Whether the U.S. can recalibrate or continue on a trajectory of self-isolation remains the key question in this rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.
